Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin's Reversal to $10k Thinks ...

What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money

My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book.
No One's Crazy
The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck.
And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another.
Luck & Risk
The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin.
Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again.
Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky.
Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.
Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now.
On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March.
Never Enough
The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction.
Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018.
There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way.
When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010.
At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it.
Tails, You Win
Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events.
At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average."
In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies.
Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get.
And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong.
When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good.
Freedom
The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.
Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7.
If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about.
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I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too.
Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
submitted by uDontLifeForBeSad to fatFIRE [link] [comments]

A Closer Look at Ripple's Distribution of XRP

I consider myself to be an informed member of the XRP community. I have a Twitter feed of all the prominent personalities/researchers to keep tabs on the news. I watch the metrics on utility-scan.com daily and even wrote a calculator to help understand what ODL is doing over time. I regularly check in on global metrics like volume, wallet openings, and the distribution of XRP within wallets.
Up until recently, if you asked me to explain how XRP is distributed out to the public, I would point you to two resources. The first is an article on XRPArcade explaining how Jed McCaleb's XRP sales are structured (not the topic of this post). The other place would be the XRP Markets Reports provided quarterly by Ripple. There you would understand that for the past year Ripple has increasingly slowed the sales of XRP and only is selling in small amounts to facilitate liquidity in markets. Based on this data, I've seen discussions on /cryptocurrency and elsewhere claiming that XRP's inflation rate is lower than Bitcoins and is near 0. Based on publicly provided data I've realized that this is not the case. XRP's distribution rate is very different than the impression painted by the XRP Markets Reports.
TLDR; Ripple is trying to paint a narrative that very little XRP is entering the market. In reality sales of XRP are very low, but XRP entering circulation remains much higher from an inflationary perspective and that rate has remained relatively unchanged from 2016 onward.
Before I dive into the data, I'd like to take a brief pause and state that in no way am I writing this to be FUD. Clear and accurate data is extremely important to me. Much of the recent community conversation has revolved around hopium and dot connecting that is unverified. It's a public ledger, but most people don't take the time to track the numbers. I'm hoping to shed more light on these important factors since there is no doubt that XRP's rate of distribution can effect the price. Ok, soapbox over.
I first was clued in that something was off while listening to a SamIAm video here. Basically Sam is calling out Ripple over their Q1 Markets Report because they didn't mention around $18 million of XRP paid to MoneyGram. Now technically this isn't a sale of XRP, but it's convenient to leave out and we would only know that this was happening because the SEC forced MoneyGram to report it on their Quarterly Investor Report.
Next I was scratching my head over a data discrepancy. Tether flipped XRP on LiveCoinWatch weeks before the other tracking sites like CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. Upon closer inspection I realized that all these sites retrieve the XRP circulating supply from a single API call and LiveCoinWatch had coded their site incorrectly. They were pulling the XRP numbers from last year.
The API is here and anyone can checkout the data: https://data.ripple.com/v2/network/xrp_distribution. I believe that there is a companion private API Ripple uses to power their pie chart here: https://ripple.com/xrp/market-performance. Notice that the market performance (at the time of this posting) is for May 17th while the public API only goes to April. I don't know why Ripple hasn't updated the public API in a month. Since the public API has a history of postings you can go back and track the "distributed" tag all the way back to the middle of 2016. Here's what I found.
XRP Released into Circulation Yearly Inflationary Rate
2016 (starts mid year) 1,229,851,071 3.5%
2017 2,667,133,033 7.34%
2018 2,035,094,018 5.22%
2019 2,325,833,516 5.67%
2020 (May 1st) 773,689,933 1.78%
2020 End (at current rate) 2,321,069,799 5.35%
The 2016 data starts halfway through the year, so you can make an educated backfill guess for that year's number as well. Ripple has been distributing between 2 and 2.6 billion XRP a year with 2017 being a the high watermark. Interestingly the number distributed in 2019 is not that much different in spite of Ripple touting significantly reduced sales for almost the whole year.
So lets talk about the term "XRP Distributed" versus "XRP Sales" obviously Ripple is providing the data for both stats, but they only talk about sales in the markets reports. Distribution is a much wider term. It can include things like "Business Development" like MoneyGram discussed above. It could be compensation incentives given to Ripple employees. Xpring is known to fund investments using XRP. All of these items aren't reported because they are not sales. Even with some generous guesses to the above categories, I have no idea what Ripple is really doing with the XRP in 2020 if they're not selling it. Even factoring in about 90 million XRP given to MoneyGram, there's still a significant amount distributed and I would love some opinions on what they think Ripple is doing with this XRP.
Some takeaways for me:
submitted by RetirePerspired to Ripple [link] [comments]

This next NANO bull run is going to leave many people heartbroken

Let me tell you people something. I've seen many of you depressed and sad during these past year and a half of slow and steady fall of many of the altcoins, including NANO. At the time of me writing this post, NANO is trading at 0.95$.
I'm going to tell you something that might wake you all up, and that is that this upcoming bull won't be easy. There will be many temptations for you people to flip your NANO once it starts to pump. The resistances are fairly simple to see 2$, 5$, 10$, 20$, 40$ and so on.
Many people will try to flip their NANO. Some will probably be successful: "Hey look, I just made easy 20% increase of my NANO stash, I do this all the time". But then, the price will not go down once they short and then they will find themselves coming back in NANO and have less NANO then they started with had they just held it through since the beginning.
They will exit at 2$, but will start buying back in once we go past 5$, some will sell here at 5$ but will start buying back once we break 10$. This will continue until 20$, and finally until 40$ when we break the ATH in terms of $, then, with no resistance in sight, the journey will continue to 100$. During this entire rise, exchanges like Kraken, Bittrex, Poloniex etc. will stop ignoring the listing of NANO as they will realize that they are missing big portion of money they could be making of its fees, which will just cause it to grow more and more.
This will sound ridiculous to some, but 100+$ per NANO is probably going to happen in the next 3 years or even sooner. Fundamentally there is no reason it doesn't happen and charts also confirm this. After 100$, who knows what can happen, another parabolic might take place again once adoption and marketing starts to be better and better and people start recognizing the quality off the coins. After we break 100$ only the sky is the limit.
Here is the chart I made that can illustrate how this growth might look in the short term future: https://charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/TEqo3
This chart might be low-balling the growth considering how hard NANO could jump once people realize the fundamentals behind it. Let's do some math here also so that this chart and my story doesn't sound like it's based on nothing.
Current NANO market cap is 13.110 BTC , which is currently 134.577.264 $. Making NANO go 30x will still put it below price of Litecoin (LTC) during a BEAR market! Litecoin can't even be compared to NANO, not even fundamentally nor development wise. Making NANO go 100x will only place it slightly ahead of XRP also in a BEAR market, which also can't be compared to NANO. 100x jump probably won't be enough to pass LTC during bull market so this scenario is most definitely a possibility.
I'm going to repeat this again. This ride won't be easy people, but it sure as hell will be worth it for anyone who decides to hold through the ups and downs. I'm not saying you are stupid if you sell at profit and exit. Be my guest, take out your investment and leave the moonbag to go. But if you could've invested in BTC back in 2011, would you exit for a 2x-3x profit when deep inside you know it has high probability of going 100x+ and a potential of going 1000+x? Recognize the value of coin that you are holding.
I'm sure many of you have been asking yourself: "How is it possible that this coins has such a low market cap? It has instant transactions, ZERO fees and continuous development. This could be a total game changer, am I missing something?" No, you're not. Other whales that are accumulating are only making you think that you're missing something. This is how it feels like when you buy the bottom of the price. This is how it feels like when you KNOW something is undervalued, but it just stays there. This is EXACTLY how the true holders of the Bitcoin felt in December 2011 when Bitcoin crashed from 31$ to 2$.
I'm going to end this long rant with a famous quote:
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi
TLDR;
Many will sell and exit for short term gain of 20%-100% and will miss out in the next bull run. NANO will reach 100+$. https://charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/TEqo3
submitted by cutthroatbill to nanotrade [link] [comments]

The CryptoSoft Review- Is It An Exceptional Crypto Trading Software or a Scam

The CryptoSoft Review- Is It An Exceptional Crypto Trading Software or a Scam
reviewed cryptosoft, it's one amongst the most effective auto trading platforms for cryptocurrency. My team set to review cryptosoft thanks to standard demand. Several folks want to use the auto trading robot to start out creating cash from the cryptocurrency market, but they need to make certain that cryptosoft is legit and will help them become financially free.
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We have tested the auto trading software and my team is pleased to let our readers apprehend that it had been an amazing expertise. cryptosoft is a flawless, easy to use, and reliable auto trading robot that has been developed everybody who wants to become made by trading cryptocurrency.
The simplest issue about investing in an auto trading robot for cryptocurrency is that you are doing not would like to try and do any work. The sensible trading robots, work with the latest and refined AI-primarily based algorithm to generate a homogenous passive income for investors.
Who wouldn’t like the idea of getting a passive income? The demand for legit auto trading robots is high, but several people do not have the analytics tools that my team and I have at our disposal. This is often why we tend to do these reviews and comprehensively check auto trading cryptocurrency robots to identify those who we can suggest to our audience.
And after our expertise with cryptosoft, we have a tendency to are happy to advocate the auto trading platform to everybody who wants to be financially free and retire before planned.
Conclusion: An outstanding software for beginners and professionals.
cryptosoft is a absolutely developed and practical automated trading platform for cryptocurrency. On the platform, investors have an opportunity to register an account which will be managed for so long as they need to continue trading. cryptosoft uses intelligent software and trading robots that may perform transactions on behalf of the investor.
The trading robots are enhanced with intelligent and sophisticated software that permits the robots to detect the best trading opportunities within the cryptocurrency market within minutes. cryptosoft is obtainable in over a hundred and fifty countries; please view the official website to know if your country is on the list.
Below, we have presented a outline that best describes our experience with cryptosoft;
one). We have run many analytics tests on the auto trading platform, and our results were assessed, we have a tendency to discovered that the success score for cryptosoft is 96percent.
2). The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market and risks are lowered by this automated system as a result of the trading robots work terribly fast to perform profitable trades.
three). Investors are allowed to make deposits and begin earning, the lowest deposit accepted on the cryptosoft platform is $250, while the best deposit value is $fifteen,000.
four). Please click here to start your expertise with the cryptosoft trading robot
cryptosoft
We have a tendency to found it simple to check the features on the cryptosoft platform as a result of of the high-quality of the location. We think this is often a good issue and merit note because a responsive website will encourage a lot of individuals to sign up and begin making money with the trading robot.
My team has expertise in the area of testing and analysing auto trading robots. But I may not facilitate noticing that anyone could use the easy options and perceive how to urge started while not any help. That is how easy the user interface on the official cryptosoft website is, we tend to were impressed.cryptosoft Scam
Who invented the cryptosoft Auto Trading Platform?
We have a tendency to dug into the complete’s history to understand how cryptosoft was created. We revealed that a team of software engineers and cryptocurrency traders are accountable for the creation and launch of cryptosoft. The founding team continues to be managing the auto trading platform and they are professionals. We have a tendency to interacted with some members of the team and can state here that there are plans to create cryptosoft even more profitable for investors.
How cryptosoft works
We set to check the auto trading system to identify how it works before continuing with the creation of an account. My team discovered that the cryptosoft uses an operational model like alternative outstanding auto trading platforms for cryptocurrency like Bitcoin Rush, and Bitcoin Loophole. You'll scan our reviews for these 2 auto trading software on our website. The system is majorly about shopping for the cryptocurrency at an occasional price and selling when the price rises. It sounds extremely straightforward, but the cryptocurrency market is very vast, and it's not simple to follow all the market trends manually. This is often why we tend to have made the switch to use auto trading robots that can create additional cash from the cryptocurrency market, compared to trading manually. When the trading robot detects a probably profitable transaction, it acts independently to pick out and secure the transaction for the investor whose account and funds are used for trading. The transaction is held until the value of the cryptocurrency that has been bought rises; it can then be sold to create a profit
The developers of cryptosoft have created it straightforward for everybody to speculate and start creating cash with the system. They have set the minimum deposit on cryptosoft at an occasional price that's cheap by many people. We have a tendency to are happy regarding this, with as low as $250, anyone can start leveraging the live trading system to form money from the cryptocurrency market.
We tend to discovered that each one the transactions done on cryptosoft are in real-time. My team was happy regarding this because it gives us additional advantage to closely study the system and confirm how reliable it is. In the subsequent part, we tend to have written about our expertise, starting with the creation of a brand new account, that we have a tendency to needed to test the live trading features on cryptosoft.
How to urge started with cryptosoft
We have a tendency to had already scan about the quick and pleasant expertise alternative users had while gap a replacement cryptosoft account, thus we have a tendency to were ready for it, and they were right, we have a tendency to created and registered a new cryptosoft account in less than five minutes.
The registration method on cryptosoft is thus quick because only some details are requested from the user. We tend to only needed to finish the registration form by providing a user name, email address, and phone variety. Next, we tend to created a password and clicked on the submit button to begin the account verification method. Verification lasted only a couple of minutes, and we have a tendency to were set to use our new cryptosoft account.
We planned to start tiny, that may be a sensible plan for new investors. We tend to deposited $250 into our new cryptosoft account. It absolutely was straightforward, all we tend to had to try to to was select a payment choice, and click on the transfer button.
cryptosoft offers users a likelihood to watch how live trading is completed with the demo feature. It shows the exact method, but there's no risk because real cash is not involved when you utilize the demo feature.

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We tend to were excited concerning our 1st live trading expertise with cryptosoft. The auto trading system allowed us to line trading limits. This is a stop-loss feature that prevents an investor from losing all their funds within the market trends flip negative. The live trade session started with a click on the button.
We tend to let the robots trade for concerning vi hours; this gave my team enough time to check how it works. We tend to will ensure that the trading robots perform quick transactions, abundant faster than experienced traders can do throughout manual trades. That's how the system secures the best cash creating opportunities for the account owner using the live trading feature.
We had a beautiful time using the live trading feature, our first trading expertise ended with the system creating us richer. Yes, we have a tendency to created a profit without doing any work.
Note: We encourage beginners to use the demo trading feature. It shows how the system works and provides you a chance to review the method of live trading without the employment of real money.
Features of the cryptosoftTrading Platform
The payout system on cryptosoft calculates the users’ earnings and credits their cryptosoft account accurately. We have a tendency to checked to ensure that our funds were paid correctly into our account balance. There were no issues. The high success score on cryptosoft increases the chances of making thus abundant money after every live trading session.
The cryptosoft verification system is quick and efficient. It is a nice feature, the verification system prevents errors whereas making a brand new account, and it stops bots from using cryptosoft to trade coins in the market.
cryptosoft has an spectacular withdrawal method. Whereas many different trading robots require weeks to process withdrawal requests, our deposit was transferred to the checking account we provided within 24-hours. This can be great news for investors who might want fast access to funds when earning with cryptosoft.
The payout system takes a proportion from the profit an investor makes when a live trading session. This is how the house owners of cryptosoft create cash to manage the auto trading system
A section of the official cryptosoft website has been dedicated to that includes testimonials from happy investors who are making a heap of cash from the cryptocurrency market. We felt therefore happy reading this section of the site. It continuously feels smart to know that many people are changing into financially free with the utilization of good technology.
The customer service is offered 24/seven; this is often such a smart plan as a result of there are investors from completely different parts of the globe who may want to contact the client support team from regions with different time zones. We have a tendency to used the customer service feature; the response was fast and terribly helpful.
A new cryptosoft account can be created and verified in minutes. The account creation process on different trading platforms could take up to a week before approval.
It's absolve to open an account, and therefore the system is transparent. Many platforms for trading robots charge for everything from gap accounts to making a deposit.
Everybody will use the auto trading robot; the features are straightforward and user-friendly. The advanced systems on other trading platforms will cause users to make mistakes and lose cash.
The possibilities of earning a profit on all transactions are high as a result of of the efficient and quick trading robots. It's troublesome to establish the potency of the trading robots, that creates risks.
cryptosoft offers its users access to twenty fouseven customer service. The client service is mostly unreliable.inner
  1. Invest your disposable income. It's best to take a position only the money you'll afford to lose. We tend to advise our readers to begin with the minimum deposit, which is $250, and grow their capital over time.
  2. Study how auto trading works. Please use the demo trading feature to urge a higher understanding of how the live trading process works.
  3. Follow cryptocurrency market trends; you'll get crucial info regarding the cryptocurrency market by reading the news and following the market trends online.
four. Save your profit. We continually advise beginners to create the habit of withdrawing their earnings and saving.
five. Use client service. The customer support team is usually prepared to help, please avoid guessing and use the customer support system as typically as necessary.
These are tips from experienced cryptocurrency traders. You can begin your experience with auto trading platforms for cryptocurrency the right approach and begin earning by following the following tip
We have a tendency to encourage you to go to our bitcoin robot page to read concerning the opposite automated cryptocurrency trading platforms we have tested and reviewed.
While reading about cryptosoft on-line, we have a tendency to saw many claims concerning endorsements by celebrities such as Gordon Ramsay, Elon Musk, Peter Jones, and many others. Interestingly, we conjointly found claims that recommended cryptosoft has been analysed and supported by the hosts on well-liked TV shows such as The Shark Tank, The Dragon’s Den and also the Morning Show. We needed to confirm this data as a result of there were no indications of any celebrity endorsements on the official website. And we were right; these claims are all false and should be

cryptosoft has not been endorsed by any celebrities or TV shows. The false claims are posted online by affiliate marketers who are making an attempt to drive traffic to their sites.
Based on our experience with the cryptosoft auto trading platform, we tend to can ensure that each investor will become terribly rich with cryptosoft. The trading platform is legit and absolutely registered. cryptosoft is offered in over 150 countries, and thus several investors are earning as high as $one,500 every day. We tend to have tested the options of cryptosoft, and it works perfectly. We tend to made a profit during the live trading session and withdrew our earnings while not any problems. cryptosoft is accessible via the browser on a smartphone, laptop, or desktop pc. The positioning is secure and easy to use while not any specialised talent. We tend to advocate cryptosoft to everybody as a result of the auto trading platform has been designed with easy features that folks will use while not any formal traini
Yes, you'll, the trading robots do all the work, and every one you need to try to to is create a deposit. There are investors who build as abundant as $1,five hundred each day. There is therefore abundant money to create from the cryptocurrency market.
How long should I use the pc throughout a trading session?
You might pay 20 minutes or less every day, all you wish to try and do is activate a live trading session and stop the session with a click. You'll be able to stop the session when you are satisfied with the profit earned that day.
The traing robots work with an intelligent system and algorithm that lowers the potential market risks. This can be why traders are now using trading robots rather than manual trading ways.

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submitted by cryptoerapro to u/cryptoerapro [link] [comments]

Short Ethereum in June? Market stock fund is not enough, DeFi will start to move up plate round?

Short Ethereum in June? Market stock fund is not enough, DeFi will start to move up plate round?
We come again from the point of view of other male chain, from the etheric fang this half a year's trends, is indeed is in front of the chain, by comparison, EOS has quick near the bottom, compared two archduke chain, it is easy to see that gap, and more fire such as BSV, because Mr Ben chung regular things, so pull up plate to fairly quickly.
So what are the factors driving ethereum up?
  1. Bitcoin halving hotspot follows the market. This year, bitcoin has halved every four years, leading to a mini-bull market and a decent rally. Ethereum's price swings are particularly relevant to Bitcoin, so ethereum has had a pretty bad run. While 312 intervened and Ethereum's DeFi project was de-leveraged within a day, prices plummeted, but with the recent correction and the effect of halve Bitcoin, they quickly rose back.
  2. Rise of DeFi Project. Ethereum is by far the most promising of all the public chains, with a large DeFi project running on it, and the funding is getting bigger and bigger, with the lock up approaching $1 billion so far. A lot of Ethereum has been locked up as collateral, which has helped the price quite a bit, and the DeFi project has also helped the price a bit.
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  1. Expectations for Ethereum 2.0. The biggest hype this year has been about the prospect of Ethereum 2.0, but the reality is that ethereum 2.0 is likely to be around for four more years, and is currently in phase zero of the beacon chain. Phase 1 will be completed in 2021 and Phase 2 in 2023. Ethereum's core developer Gavin Wood left to work on Boca, resulting in a project that was extremely slow and too heavy to start at will. But it is a good thing that such expectations can drive up prices.
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The first is that the rally in US stocks after the outbreak of the virus has now almost run its course, and any subsequent fall in US stocks will lead to falls in other financial products. Currency circle word actually can from another Angle, such as the incremental capital is small, the market now is a stock fund, the currency is currently out of state sideways shock, as long as a touch 10000 u are soon, higher kinetic energy is insufficient, so as long as a drop could be carried forward, the etheric fang at present with the linkage of the COINS is quite large, so it would probably have to be together is brought down.
The second reason, which has no scientific basis, is the kind of analyst who either has a boom or a bust today and cannot rule out a sideways move.
The third reason is that it is better to flip a coin according to this idea. The point of view is to support one's own point of view, relying on superstitious words, and what is the difference from those "masters".
The fourth reason is wrong and does not specify a specific time period. ETH has done well in the past, and has produced a bunch of latches, which makes no logical sense and it is doubtful that any of these reasons are arbitrary. After 312, for example, there is very little hanging around, and when you look at this, it feels like these reasons are particularly loose.
The fifth reason, USDT secondary does not enter the coin circle, which I believe many people want to see curse. So is USDT, with a market value of 65.2 billion yuan, for decoration?
Conclusion: After reading the above five reasons, Tesla felt that this person was a magic stick, who could really say little and many things were illogical. More like that kind of bull market teacher, everyone is a great god, a bear market down did not see a few. So we have to look very carefully at what someone else is saying to see if it's on top of the point, if there's something serious to back up his argument. In the short term, the price of a currency is a question of God. In the long term, the price of a currency is more likely to see a moving trend than a broken line. In addition, currency investors encounter such information that clearly tells you the trend of the market, and there are quite a few people in the message, must pay attention to, do not look at the surface, many are conformity, to dig into the inner things. Listen to others, make your own decisions, and have your own judgment is better than listening to others.
And then another thing, the hot area this year is DeFi, most of the DeFi projects are exploding, the biggest jump is Lend, nearly 30 times so far, and other projects and derivatives have gone up quite a bit.
https://preview.redd.it/ud0gvnmwn0551.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=a390f0c7f2d6af3bda256a2b19472d1b6cbdb59b
There is plenty of room for improvement, judging from the steady growth of users and funding for DeFi's projects. Especially in the place closest to the landing of blockchain, there are a lot of stories to tell, but at present, the danger level is further increasing, especially if the market is not ideal in the next six months. DeFi's biggest problem at the moment is the fear that markets will suddenly fall off a cliff, ethereum's network will be blocked, resulting in massive mortgage liquidations and a pile of dead bodies.
Although this track is still a great possibility, but those smart people layout very early, now it is time to ship the point, to layout the next direction. There are limited funds on the floor, the DeFi project is overvalued, the entry risk rate is now high, the yield is very low, so it is certain that some people will come in after the lag of the market information and get caught at the high point.
So the question is, if DeFi doesn't work, what else does? So far we know about Dex, DeFi, games, cloud storage, cross-chain, payments, anonymity, and more.
submitted by momoexchange to u/momoexchange [link] [comments]

My Ethereum Prediction From 2017. Still Think I was Wrong?

Link to the original post is at the bottom.

Ethereum made one mistake, talking about its future contributions before people could fully perceive them. for anyone that believes ethereum is undervalued it is my opinion you cannot comprehend abstract ideas or conceptualize what ehtereum and blockchain technology actually is.
cryptocurrencies as a digital asset are cool, fun to play with and not typically a bad investment as they are based off the value of bitcoin.
bitcoin as a form of currency has its place and will more than likely ( by means of Litecoin ) aquire a 50 billion dollar market share of cross border money transfer services current rates require 10%+ of the sent value. litecoin does this for about 1%-10% of that. (0.01%-1% and in actuality less in most cases ) divide 84 million coins (max available at production end) by 500 billion (yearly cross border money transfers) roughly $4500 per coin is the minimum value of each coin to cover just one year of money transfers. rest assured it will be higher.
ethereum is efficiency , it is balance, equality, cooperation, innovation, security, and accountability. Ethereum is progress in the name of the greater good of all mankind not just the elite. Ethereum is a social Democracy
all of this sounds nice .... which is what Ethereum promises. people need proof before investing. and that is why you will be just a moment to late. because once it's a sure thing everyone will be investing.
blockchain technology is the real use of digital assets. imagine the following, all media content can be easily published on the blockchain providing two advantages, instant alert to its previous creation if applicable (through the entire database being accessible for instant search and comparison of all published media ) instant encryption ensuring piracy is lessened ( future application software will not be downloadable its code will exist in the ethereum "cloud based" network) the media can be viewed, shared, or done with as is desired, but only to the limits permitted by its creator and only when accessed through a supported ethereum network affiliate using ethereums "Token" to powe rthe software allowing the creator of the content to share their creation. furthermore the creator is capable of issuing their own proprietary tokens that allow them to essentially grant access to their creation to anyone in posession of their "token"
The reason that you cannot comprehend Ethereum is the same reason your parents dont understand bitcoin, why your grandma will never comprehend the internet, why her mother doubted electricity, and her mother didnt see how coal could move a 50 ton train. that reason ? you are all just one generation behind in respect to grasping the concept, for which you have nothing to base its technology off of Ethereum is the next step in innovation. we all wondered what form the next leap in progress would take every great leap in technology is not recognized immediately but when initiated they cannot be stopped. the chain cannot be stopped it just moves forward. building on every advancement that comes before it.
whatare these apps ?.....
medical information will be on ethereum network.... the entire medical database of the world will be connected. acting as a living network updated instantaneously patients symptoms will have quantifiable values, vital statistics will be available for every patient that has ever had the symptoms that any given patient comes in with. by inputting the data of a patient the network uses event related probability to calculate a given set of all possible cases where the data matched with other patients ( millions of variables are considered in an instant.) to diagnose and treat patients according to the most succesful course of action as time goes on after years of trial and error the data will eventually reach a near 100% success rate. faster than we ever thought possible.
Television. cable will end see my remaining thoughts down below for why. netflix style content will replace it. tokens will be distributed. by movie producers meaning a handful of affiliates have access to the rights to distribute them. and netflix will require you to buy its token to have access.
pandora style radio tokens
gps tokens,
but why ?
by making specific tokens account for specific services we can prevent inflation. we also give a value to our money supply. remember when we had money backed by gold ? a dollar could be exchanged for its value in gold. well thats your answer. we have returned to a barter system where i can trade my own services for your services or a future promise that you can at any time redeem said token for my service, or trade for other services. ultimately our money can be thought of as bitcoin and the gold is all other coins. fiat or at least a hard money currency will always exist although two things will occur because of that. people will not be as likely to keep large amounts of money outside of the system as it will depreciate. in most cases over long periods of time. take 10 dollars out for a year and when you come back to buy the equivelent in bitcoin you will likely receive less than if it stayd in the system. where as hard currency versions of bitcoin will retain their value. that theory should hold until 2041 when all coins have been mined and by that time i would bet everyone has jumpedon board. and global currencies will have traded in their fiatmoney to make huge gains from the appreciation of bitcoin integration. i believe bitcoin will be more than an investment it is a replacement as well as a return to the gold standard.
if my outlook holds true then wewill all get an identity token. with that token you can vote on everything from what to spend the pto funds on to what roads need to be built in your city to whether that 150 million dollars should go towards researching the effects of mustard gas on purple monkeys or if it might be better served providing 2 and a half million children with water that hasnt been filled with biological waste. or maybe to give power to 20 million human beings that have lived their entire life without it.
we will have a global currency (bitcoin) and all goods and services will add to its overall marketcap. one services sucess adds to the value of all services. if you do roofing in the the summer your toens will be more valuable. if people cant afford your service then they can contribute to the mining of that service if you allow it. if yoou want to support a cause like funding research on autism then you can go and buy their coin. their service is to find a cure and if its important to people then they will continue to do so. if it is meaningless we as a society will not buy their coin and they will have to find a new job, or keep it as a hobby. either way its not up to a group of people that find it unnecessary it is the decision of the entire world as a collective entity.
many will read what i am about to say and it will cause everything i have said to be no longer looked at as credible. for this i am sorry that you are unable to think of anyone in this world but yourself, and it is people like you that have brought us to this point. socialism always failed in the worlds eyes as did communism. on paper the greatest civilization and its structure are ones in which people work together and do not worry about accumulating wealth in order to live in excess. the wealth is distributed equally, some positions which are harder to fill or require more skills will in the end offer higher pay for their tokens but only because there will be a supply and demand effect created due to its nature of less people being capable of supplying that service/good. on the flip side i believe that by the same token certain positions will ultimately demand a far higher pay. do you want to clean shit out of a porta potty ? probably not so when you need someone else to do it guess what you are going to pay that guy/girl exactly what it costs to have someone do it or you can do it yourself either way supply and demand dictates the value and the most agreed upon value between the provider and the consumer will prevail.




Card

submitted by buybitcoinsites_com to u/buybitcoinsites_com [link] [comments]

ADA The Case for Dynamic TX Fees

The following pertains to TX fees. For clarity, this is not about getting a free lunch, it is about the sustainability of the Cardano project while remaining competitive with the legacy banking system with respect to the movement and use of finances in the wider economy.
Bitcoin Case Example
Where BTC TX fees were at one time essentially “free” they have over time come to reach as high as $55.16 US per 250 byte transaction on December 22nd of 2017 (Today BTC TX fees are about $0.25 per 250 bytes). While for sizable international transfers of value this may be acceptable, when considering buying pizza for the family it makes the purchase non viable as well as many other transactions in a local economy. As a result BTC becomes a currency with restricted economic use and or ends up being little more than a speculative financial instrument, not a currency at all in the broader economic sense.
Importance of TX Fees for Treasury and Network Security/Sustainability
It is clear a TX fee rate is important for the long term viability of the Cardano project. There needs to be a mechanism in place which allows for the collection of funds for the treasury and distribution of rewards to nodes for maintaining the network. Fees also work to discourage network spam. These attributes of the TX fees must not be overlooked and in fact should form one half of the equation when calculating TX fee sizes.
Importance of Low TX Fees to Maintain an Economically Viable Currency
As we can see, when looking at BTC’s high TX fees, they can be damaging to the viability of cryptocurrency in the broad financial economy. However, TX fees do not need to get to the same high levels of BTC TX fees to have a negative impact on user experience and restrict the viable use of the currency.
A TX fee of $1.00 US makes the use of a currency questionable for a vast range of economic operations when compared to fee scales of the legacy banking institutions. If banks were charging $1.00 US to use bank cards people would probably use cash, likewise if a cryptocurrency TX fee is $1.00 per transaction then it makes more sense to continue using the legacy banking system for day to day expenditures.
As such part of the TX fee equation needs to consider a fee value that can be absorbed by the daily user, without it costing them more than the legacy banking system.
Finding Balance
Clearly TX fees are needed, the trick is in finding balance between the needs of the treasury and nodes against what users can absorb without TX fees damaging the viable use of the currency in the economy.
To this end I suggest there are several questions IOHK need to ask of the ecosystem in the interest of determining the feasibility of a dynamic TX fee system.
Question 1
What level of funding in US dollars does the treasury need annually to allow for the maintenance and potential future development of the Cardano project?
I suggest finding this number in US dollars simply because the US dollar is currently the dominant international currency. In retrospect, any fiat currency you use to determine this value will suffice so long as it is consistently referenced through the process.
Question 2
What is the required reward level in US dollars for running a node on the Cardano network to make it worthwhile to bear the costs associated with that needed action, and how many nodes are needed to maintain the security of the network before supply and demand dictates the reward level be adjusted up or down?
Question 3
How many transactions, on average, occur daily on the Cardano network since the launch of the Cardano SL Mainent on Friday, September 29th, 2017?
A Dynamically Scalable TX System
Using the answers to the three questions above can a TX system be developed which responds dynamically to the fluctuating value of ADA against the US dollar, increases and decreases in network activity and abundance or scarcity of active Nodes in the network, with the precondition of maintaining a healthy treasury?
Potential Risks of A Dynamically Scaled TX System
As the value of ADA fluctuates against the US dollar there is potential for significant value loss to ADA holdings in the treasury which could impact negatively on its ability to fund maintenance and future development of the project over time. The flip side of this is that at the same time, increases in the value of ADA against the dollar could equally result in an abundance of available cash flow for the needs of the ecosystem.
Cost inflation also needs to be considered, what might be a healthy treasury balance in US dollars this year may not be enough to cover costs of maintenance and development several years from now. As such the needs of the treasury should be reassessed every year. Annual reassessment will help to shield users from sudden inflation shock.
Benefit of A Dynamically Scaled TX System
A dynamically scaled TX system offers users an assurance that the costs of using the system are pinned to a dollar value, meaning that those costs will remain consistent against the value of the coin.
If it is found the amount of finances needed to fund the treasury and nodes annually divided by the amount of average daily transactions results in a $0.05 US value for TX fees, this would mean at the $1.00 US coin value the TX fee would be 0.05 ADA per transaction. Of course transaction size plays a role in this as well. A base fee should be findable, transactions with larger byte sizes may attract larger fees. Should the coin then appreciate in value to $10.00 US the fee would then decrease to 0.005 ADA, maintaining the $0.05 US fiat value. Declines in the coins US dollar value would conversely increase the fee relative to ADA to maintain the $0.05 fiat value.
The $0.05 fee is an arbitrary number used as an example only.
Thus, should the coin gain value against the dollar then not only will less coins be needed to make purchases in the economy but the TX fees will also respond accordingly, also being lower with respect to the ADA currency. At the same time it offers users the understanding that should the value of the coin drop not only will purchases cost more ADA but the TX fees will also be higher relative to the coins value while at all times maintaining a viable ecosystem through a healthy treasury and node reward system.
Nuances
Update times for TX fees should be considered so the TX fees are not in constant flux while the coin is finding market equilibrium. This may be hourly, six, eight, twelve hourly or daily. Or could be updated based on percentage gains and losses, whatever works best for both stakeholders and the overall network.
Decreases and increases in network activity would also have an impact on a dynamic TX fee, as such daily transaction averages would need to be reevaluated periodically so appropriate adjustments could be made to a dynamic TX fee. Increasing average activity resulting in a potentially lower fee and decreasing average activity resulting in a potentially higher fee.
In Conclusion
A dynamically scalable TX fee system has the potential to make the Cardano network and ADA coin extremely competitive with the legacy banking system, attracting users by giving them a fixed fiat fee value against the coin, while also maintaining a healthy ecosystem with somewhat predictable financial outcomes for the treasury and nodes.
Although the overall system would be complex, it should be able to autonomously monitor all variables and make adjustments at set times without human interaction when up and running.
submitted by Sean-Axiom to cardano [link] [comments]

COSS should do whatever it can to stay afloat

I just want to start by saying that I saw this coming around 2 years ago and posted about it here. My biggest concern that COSS never seemed to understand is that exchanges survive on TRADING VOLUME, not listing fees. Sure, listing fees are a nice bonus and in massive bull markets you can milk projects for a lot, but in bear markets nobody will pay listing fees and it is not a sustainable business model to force coins/projects to pay massive amounts to list. An exchange that relies solely on listing fees will always go under in a bear market. Ignoring Binance as an outlier that can still collect listing fees, the exchanges that are thriving now are the ones that have all the coins a person could want, like Kraken, and listed those coins because it made their exchange better for the longrun.
Meanwhile, COSS continuously tried to milk great projects like Nano for listing fees rather than listing them for the long-term benefit of the exchange. Yes, some people didn't want to trade on Coss due to the low volume on many markets, but the nail in the coffin was not having all the major popular projects listed that people wanted.
Anyway, on to the point of the post:
Coss should try to stay afloat for awhile longer. If that means dropping nearly all employees, selling the platform to a company with the funds to maintain it, anything- Coss should try to stay open and give crypto a chance. We have just endured a vicious downward spiral over multiple years and all projects are in bad shape in general.
I have seen this happen in every single crypto cycle (although this one is the most severe, due to the amount valuations rose in 2017). From 2014-2016, exchanges and crypto companies were closing left and right. Circle got rid of their bitcoin wallet and tried to compete with Venmo. And what happened? Every single one of those exchanges and companies ended up regretting it, big time. Many never were able to get back in because it was too late. It felt like crypto was dead and hopeless during that entire 3 year period - morale was just as bad as it is now.
The companies that managed to stay open through that 2014-2016 bear market (usually running at a loss for years) became GIANTS when the market flipped. Small companies like Bittrex became massive as people flooded back into the space, like they always do after huge crypto bear markets start to come to an end. People start wanting to try to buy the bottom, and the bottom starts rising...
I don't work for Coss and I don't claim to know its financial situation, so perhaps it's simply impossible for the company to continue on running without funds. Obviously they are a bit strapped for cash considering the 2nd ICO attempt and such. But I just want to say that:
It's tough to say where crypto is headed and if it will ever be successful. I think it has a great chance to "make it", but who knows. But one thing is certain - closing down now guarantees that you will 100% be excluded from any/all bull runs that might occur in the future. Staying afloat and running at absolute minimum capacity (minimum support/no new dev work, just maintenance, as the exchange works pretty well right now) will at least give COSS a chance to survive and possibly even thrive in the future again. I hope they choose the latter option.
submitted by Cryptore to CossIO [link] [comments]

how often do I get two same random results in a row?

Scenario 1
I believe the probability of a fair coin landing on the same face twice in a row starting with any given toss is 50%.
So there is a 50/50 chance I will get two same face in a row. This happens hundreds of times a day if I flip the coin a lot.

Scenario 2
If I have a fair six sided die, I can roll the same number twice in a row a bunch of times in a day.
The chance of the first roll landing on something is 1. The chance of the second roll being the same is 1/6. So every six pairs of rolls should get one match. (right?)

Scenario 3
I have a random number generator showing three digits (0-9) at a time. How often will it show the same three digit sequence in a row?

Imagine the first roll is 729. There is a 1 / 1000 chance the next number will be the same. How often will it happen?

If I roll 1000 times, will I likely get two same in a row (somewhere in the series)? I know probabilities are not always intuitive, but my intuition says I am missing something.

How do you go about solving this in general? I found this page which seems related: Probability of BTC vanity address

My real question
How often will https://www.grc.com/passwords.htm show the same passwords in a row?
submitted by robnugen to learnmath [link] [comments]

[Part 1] KAVA Historical AMA Tracker! (Questions & Answers)

ATTN: These AMA questions are from Autumn 2019 - before the official launch of the Kava Mainnet, and it's fungible Kava Token.
These questions may no longer be relevant to the current Kava landscape, however, they do provide important historical background on the early origins of Kava Labs.
Please note, that there are several repeat questions/answers.

Q1:

Kava is a decentralized DEFI project, why did you implement the countries restrictions to run the node? Will there be such restrictions by the time of the mainnet?

Q2:

According to the project description it has been indicated that staking reward (in KAVA tokens) varies from 3 to 20% per annum. But how will you fight with inflation?

We all know how altcoins prices are falling, and their bottom is not visible. And in fact, we can get an increase in the number of tokens for staking, but not an increase in the price of the token itself and become a long-term investor.

  • Answer: Kava is both inflationary with block rewards, but deflationary when we burn CDP fees. Only stakers who bond their Kava receive inflationary rewards - users and traders on exchanges do not get this. In this way, rewards are inflated, but given to stakers and removed value from the traders who are speculating like a tax. The Deflationary structure of fees should help counterbalance the price drops from inflation if any. In the long-term as more CDPs are used, Kava should be a deflationary asset by design if all things go well

Q3:

In your allocation it is indicated that 28.48% of the tokens are in the "Token treasury" - where will these tokens be directed?

  • Answer: Investors in financing rounds prior to the IEO have entered into long-term lock-up agreements in-line with their belief in Kava’s exciting long-term growth potential and to allow the projects token price to find stability. Following the IEO, the only tokens in circulation will be those sold through the IEO on Binance and the initial Treasury tokens released.
  • No private sale investor tokens are in circulation until the initial release at the end of Q1 2020 and then gradually over the [36] months The initial Treasury tokens in circulation will be used for a mixture of ecosystem grants, the expenses associated with the IEO as well as initial market making requirements as is typical with a listing of this size. Kava remains well financed to execute our roadmap following the IEO and do not envisage any need for any material financings or token sales for the foreseeable future.

Q4:

Such a platform (with loans and stable coins) is just the beginning since these aspects are a small part of many Defi components. Will your team have a plan to implement other functions, such as derivatives, the dex platform once the platform is successfully launched?

  • Answer: We believe Kava is the foundation for many future defi products. We need stable coins, oracles, and other infrastructure first that Kava provides. Once we have that, we can apply these to derivatives and other synthetics more easily. For example, we can use the price feeds and USDX to enable users to place 100x leverage bets with each other. If they both lock funds into payment channels, then they can use a smart contract based on the price feed to do the 100x trade/bet automatically without counter party risk. In this way, Kava can expand its financial product offerings far beyond loans and stable coins in the future.

Q5:

There are several options for using USDX on the KAVA platform, one of which is Margin Trading / Leverage. Is this a selection function or a compulsory function? Wondering since there are some investors who don`t like margin. What is the level of leverage and how does a CDP auction work?

  • Answer: This is a good #Q . Kava simply provides loans to users in USDX stable coins. What the users do is completely up to them. They can use the loans for everyday payments if they like. Leverage and hedging are just the main use cases we foresee - there are many ways people can use the CDP platform and USDX.

Q6:

Most credit platforms do not work well in the current market. What will you do to attract more people to use your platform and the services you provide? Thank you

  • Answer: Most credit platforms do not work well in the current market? I think that isn't correct at least for DeFi. Even in the bear market, MakerDao and Compound saw good user growth. Regardless, our efforts at Kava to build the market are fairly product and BD focused. 1) we build more integrations of assets and expand financial services to attract new communities and users. 2) we focus on building partnerships with high quality teams to promote and build Kava's core user base. Kava is just the developer. Our great partners like Ripple, Stakewith.Us, P2P, Binance - they have the real users that demand Kava. They are like our system integrators that package Kava up nicely and present it to their users. In order to grow, we need to deepen our partnerships and bring in new ones around the world.

Q7:

KAVA functions as a reserve currency in situations where the system is undercollateralized. In such cases new KAVA is minted and used to buy USDX off the market until USDX becomes safely overcollateralized.

Meaning, there will be no max supply of KAVA?

  • Answer: Yes, there is no max supply of Kava.

Q8:

Why Kava?

  • Answer: ...because people are long BTC and the best way to go long BTC without giving up custody is Kava's platform. Because it is MakerDao for bitcoin. Bitcoin has a 10x market cap of ETH and Maker is 10x the size of Kava. I think we're pretty undervalued right now.

Q9:

How do you plan to make liquidity in Kava?

  • Answer: Working with Binance for the IEO and as the first exchange for KAVA to trade on will be a huge boost in increasing the liquidity of trading KAVA.

Q10:

Most crypto investors or crypto users prefer easy transaction and low fees, what can we expect from KAVA about this?

  • Answer: Transaction fees are very low and confirm if seconds. The user experience is quite good on Tendermint-based blockchains.

Q11:

How do I become a note validator on KavA?

Q12:

It is great to know that KAVA is the first DEFI-supported project sponsored by Binance Launchpad, do you think this is the meaning that CZ brings: Opening the DEFI era, as a leader, you feel like how ?

  • Answer: We are the first DeFi platform that Launchpad has supported. We are a very strategic blockchain for major crypto like BNB. Kava's platform will bring more utility to the users of BNB and the Binance DEX. It feels good of course to have validation from the biggest players in the space like Cosmos, Ripple, CZ/Binance, etc.

Q13:

Since decentralized finance applications is already dominating, how do you intend to surpass those leading in the market?

  • Answer: The leaders are only addressing ethereum. BTC, XRP, BNB, ATOM is a much larger set to go after that current players cannot.

Q14:

What does Ripple play in the Kava's ecosystem, since Ripple is like a top tier company and it’s impressive that you are partnered with them?

  • Answer: Ripple is an equity investor in Kava and a big supporter of our work in cross-chain settlement research and implementations. Ripple's XRP is a great asset in terms of users and liquidity that the Kava platform can use. In addition, Ripple's money service business customers are asking for a stable coin for remittances to avoid the currency heading risk that XRP presents. Ripple will not use USDC or other stable coins, but they are open to using USDX as it can be XRP-backed.

Q15:

Considering the connectivity, Libra could be the biggest competitor if KAVA leverages interchain for efficiency.

  • Answer: With regard to USDX, it is important to understand the users interacting with the Kava blockchain have no counterparty that people could go after for legal actions. A user getting a USDX loan has no counterparty. The software holds the collateral and creates the loan. The only laws that would apply are to the very users that are using the system.

Q16:

Wonder how KAVA will compete with the tech giants

  • Answer: Libra is running into extreme issues with the US Senate and regulators. Even the G7-G20 groups are worried. Its important to understand that Libra is effectively a permissioned system. Only big companies that law makers can go after are able to run nodes. In Kava, nodes can be run by anyway and our nodes are based all over the world. It's incredibly hard for a law maker to take down Kava because they would need to find and legally enforce hundreds of business in different jurisdictions to comply. We have an advantage in this way over the larger projects like Libra or Clayton.

Q17:

In long-term, what's the strategy that KAVA has for covering the traditional finance users as well? Especially regarding the "stability"

  • Answer: Technical risk is unavoidable for DeFi. Only time will tell if a system is trustworthy and its never 100% that it will not fail or be hacked. This is true with banks and other financial systems as well. I think for DeFi, the technical risk needs to be priced in to the expected returns to compensate the market. DeFi does have a better user experience - requiring no credit score, identity, or KYC over centralized solutions.
  • With our multi-collateral CDP system, even with it overcollateralized, people can get up to 3x leverage on assets. Take 100 USD in BTC, get a USDX loan for 66 USDX, then buy $66 BTC and do another loan - you can do this with a program to get 3x leverage with the same risk profile. This is enough for most people.
  • However, it will be possible once we have Kava's CDP platform to extend it into products that offer undercollateralized financial products. For example, if USER 1 + USER 2 use payment channels to lock up their USDX, they can use Kava's price feeds to place bets between each other using their locked assets. They can bet that for every $1 BTC/USD moves, the other party owes 3x. In this way we can even do 100x leverage or 1000x leverage and create very fun products for people to trade with. Importantly, even in places where margin trading is regulated and forbidden, Kava's platform will remain open access and available.

Q18:

In long-term, what's the strategy that KAVA has for covering the traditional finance users as well? Especially regarding the "stability"

  • Answer: Kava believes that stable coins should be backed not just by crypto or fiat, but any widely used, highly liquid asset. We think in the future the best stablecoin would be backed by a basket of very stable currencies that include crypto and fiat or whatever the market demands.

Q19:

Compound, maker they're trying to increase their size via the competitive interests rates. THough it shows good return in terms of growth rate, still it's for short-term. Wonder other than financial advantage, KAVA has more for the users' needs?

  • Answer: Robert, the CEO of Compound is an investor and advisor to Kava. We think what Compound does with money markets is amazing and hope to integrate when they support more than just Ethereum assets. Kava's advantage vs others is to provide basic DeFi services like returns on crypto and stable coins today when no other platform offers that. Many platforms support ETH, but no platform can support BTC, XRP, BNB, and ATOM in a decentralized way without requiring centralized custody of these assets.

Q20:

The vast majority of the cryptocurrency community's priorities is symbolic pricing. When prices rise, the community rejoices and grows. When they fall, many people begin to cast in a negative way. How will KAVA solve the negative problem when the price goes down? What is your plan to strengthen and develop the community to persuade more people to look at the product than the price?

  • Answer: We believe price is an important factor for faith in the market. One of Kava's key initiatives was selecting only long-term partners that are willing to work with kava for 2 years. That is why even after 6 months, 0 private investor or kava team tokens will be liquid on the market.
  • We believe not in fast pumps and then dumps that destroy faith, but rather we try and operate the best we can for long-term sustainable growth over time. It's always hard to control factors in the market, and some factors are out of our control such as BTC price correlations, etc - however, we treat this like a public company stock - we want long-term growth of Kava and try to make sure our whole community of Kava holders is aligned with that the best we can.

Q21:

Do you have any plans to attract non-crypto investors to Kava and how? What are the measures to increase awareness of kava in non-crypto space?

  • Answer: We are 100% focused on crypto, not the general market. We solve the problems of crypto traders and investors - not the average grandma who needs a payment solution. Kava is geared for decentralized leverage and hedging.

Q22:

Adoption is crucial for all projects and crypto companies, what strategy are you gonna use/follow or u are now following to get Kava adopted and used by many people all over the world?

Revenue is an important aspect for all projects in order to survive and keep the project/company up and running for long term, what are the ways that Kava generates profits/revenue and what is its revenue model?

  • Answer: We have already partnered with several large exchanges, long-term VCs, and large projects like Ripple and Cosmos. These are key ways for us to grow our community. As we build support for more assets, we plan to promote Kava's services to those new communities of traders.
  • Kava generates revenue as more people use the platform. As the platform is used, KAVA tokens are burned when users pay stability fees. This deflates the total supply of Kava and should in most cases give rise to the value of KAVA like a stock-buyback in the public markets.

Q23:

In order to be success in Loan project of Cryptocurrency, I think marketing is very important to make people using this service without any registration. What is main strategy for marketing?

  • Answer: Our main strategy is to build a great experience and offer products that are not available to communities with demand. Currently no DeFi products can serve BTC users for example. Centralized exchanges can, but nothing truly trustless. Kava's platform can finally give the vast audiences of BTC, BNB, and ATOM holders access to core DeFi services they cannot get on their own due to the smart contract limitations of those platforms.

Q24:

Currently, some project have policies for their ambassadors to create a contribution and attract recognition for the project! So the KAVA team plans to implement policies and incentives for KAVA ambassadors?

  • Answer: Yes, we will be creating a KAVA ambassador program and releasing that soon. Please follow our social media channels to learn about it in the coming weeks.

Q25:

Currently there are so many KAVA tokens sold on exchanges, why is this happening while KAVA is going to IEO on Binance? Are those KAVA codes fake or not?

  • Answer: For everyone's safety, please understand Kava tokens do not exist yet and they will only exist starting with the Binance IEO. Any other token listings or offerings of Kava are not supported by Kava Labs and I highly discourage you all from trying to get them there. It is most likely a big scam. Please only trust Binance for this.

Q26:

KAVA have two tokens, the first is called Kava - a governance and staking token; the second is called USDX - an algorithmically managed crypto-backed stable coin. What are the advantages of USDX compared to other stablecoins such as: USDT, USDC, TUSD, GUSD, ...?

  • Answer: USDX is one of the few stablecoins to be fully backed by crypto-assets. This means that we do not deal with fiat to back the value, and thus we don't have some of the issues when it comes to storing fiat funds with banks and custodians. This also makes our product fully digital and built for the future of crypto growth.

Q27:

As a CEO, does your background in Esports and Gaming industry help anything to your management and development of KAVA Labs?

  • Answer: Esports no. But having been a multi-time venture-backed foundeCEO and have gone through the start-up phase before has made creating and running a 2nd company easier. Right now Kava is still small, Fnatic had over 80 employees. It was at a larger scale. I would say developing software is much more than doing the hardware at fnaticgear.com

Q28:

Why did Kava choose to launch IEO on Binance and not other exchanges like: Kucoin, Houbi, Gate, ....?

  • Answer: Kava had a lot of interest from exchanges to partner with for IEO. We decided based on a lot of factors such as userbase, diverse exposure across multiple regions and countries, and an amazing team that provides so much insight into so many communities such as this one. Binance has been a tremendous partner and we also look forward to continuing our partnership far into the future.

Q29:

Currently if Search on coinmarketcap has 3 types of stablecoins bearing the USDX symbol (but these 3 stablecoins are no information). So, what will KAVA do to let users know that Kava's USDX is another stablecoin?

  • Answer: All these USDX have no volume or listings. We will be on Binance. I am not worried.

Q30:

In addition to the Token Allocation for Binance Launchpad, what is the Token Treasury in the Initial Circulating Supply?

  • Answer: This is controlled by Kava Labs, but with the big cash we have saved from fundraising, we see no reason why these tokens would be sold on the market. The treasury tokens are for use in grants, ecosystem growth initiatives, development, and other incentive programs to drive adoption of the platform.

Q31:

How you will compete with your competitors? Currently i don't see much but for future how you will maintain this consistency ? No doubt it is Great and Unique project, what is the main problem that #KAVA is currently facing?

  • Answer: Because our industry is just starting out, I don't like to think of them as our direct competitors. We are all working to grow the size of the pie rather than get a larger slice from a small pie. The one thing that we believe will allow us to stand apart is the community we are building. Being able to utilize our own community along with Cosmos and our other partners like Binance for the IEO, we have a strong footing to get a lot of early users onto our platform. Also, we are also focusing on growing Kava internationally particularly Asia. We hope to build our platform for an even larger userbase than just the west.

Q32:

How do you explain your project to a random person who has never heard of your project?

  • Answer: non-crypto = Kava is a lending platform for users of cryptocurrencies.
  • crypto = Kava is a cross-chain DeFi platform for loans and stablecoins backed by BTC, BNB, XRP, ATOM and other major cryptocurrencies.

Q33:

Will KAVA team have a plan on implementing DAO module on your platform since its efficiency on autonomy, decentralization and transparency?

  • Answer: All voting is already transparent on the Kava blockchain. We approved a number of proposals on our test net.

Q34:

how to use usdx token :only for your platform or you have plan to use usdx for payment ?

  • Answer: Payments is a nice use case, but demand for crypto payments is still small. We may choose to focus here later if demand for crypto payments increases. Currently it is quite small with the bulk of use remaining in trading and speculative use cases.

Q35:

Do you have plans to spread KAVA ecosystem across other continents. if yes, what are the strategies and how can I as a community member contribute to making it possible?

  • Answer: We are already across many continents - I don't think we are in antarctica yet. Africa might be light on nodes as well. I think as we grow on major exchanges like Binance, new node operators will get interested and help decentralize Kava further.

Q36:

Maker's CDP lending system is on top in this market and its Dominance is currently sitting on 64.90 % , how kava will compete will maker and compound?

  • Answer: adding assets like bitcoin which have more value and more users than ETH. It's a bigger market that Maker cannot compete with Kava in.

Q37:

Currently, the community is too concerned about the price. As prices rise, the community rejoice and grow, when falling, many people start throwing negatively. So what is KAVA's solution to getting people to focus on the project rather than the price of the token?

What is your plan to strengthen and grow the community to persuade more individuals to look at the product than the price?

  • Answer: We also share similar concerns as price and price direction is always a huge factor in the crypto industry. A lot of people of course are very short-term focused on flipping for bigger profits. One of the solutions, and what Kava has done, is to make sure that everything structured is for the long-term. So that makes sure that our investors and employees are all focused on long-term gains and growth. Locking vesting periods are part of that alignment. Another thing is that we at Kava are very transparent in our progress and development. We will be regularly posting updates within our own communities to allow our users and followers to keep up with everything we're up to. Please follow us or look at our github if you're interested!

Q38:

How did Kava get on Piexgo?

  • Answer: We did not work with Piexgo. We have not distributed tokens to any exchange other than Binance. I cannot speak to what is going on there, but I would be very wary of what is happening there.

Q39:

Why was the 1st round price so much lower than the current price

  • Answer: It is natural to worry that early investors got better pricing and could dump on the market. I can assure you that our investors are in this for the long-term. All private sale rounds signed 2 year contracts to run validators - and if they don't they forfeit their tokens. You can compare our release schedule to any other project. We have one of the most restricted circulating supply schedules of any project EVER and its because all our investors are commiting to the long-term success of the project and believe in Kava.
  • About the pricing itself - it is always a function of traction like for any start-up. When we made our public announcement about the project in June, we were only a 4 man team with just some github code. We could basically run a network with a single node, our own. Which is relatively worthless. I think our pricing of Kava at this time was justified. We were effectively a seed-stage company without a product or working network.
  • By July we made severe progress on the development side and the business side. We successful launched our first test net with the help of over 70 validator business partners around the world. We had a world-wide network of hundreds of people supporting us with people and resources at this point and the risk we would fail in launching a working product was much lower. At this point, the Kava project was valued at $25M. At this point, we had many VCs and investors asking for Kava tokens that we turned away. We only accepted validators that would help us launch the network. It was our one and only goal.
  • Fast forward to today, the IEO price simply reflects the traction and market demand for Kava. Our ecosystem is much larger than it was even a month ago. We have support from Ripple, Cosmos, and Binance amongst other large crypto projects. We have 100+ validators securing our network with very sophisticated high-availability set-ups. In addition, our ecosystem partners have built products for Kava - such as block explorers and others are working on native integrations to wallets and exchanges. Launchpad will be very big for us. Kava is a system designed to cater to crypto traders and investors and in a matter of days we distributed via Binance Launchpad and put in the hands of 130+ countries and tens of thousands of users overnight. It doesn't get more DeFi than that.

Q40:

What is the treasury used for?

  • Answer: Kava's treasury is for ecosystem growth activities.
  • Investors in financing rounds prior to the IEO have entered into long-term lock-up agreements in-line with their belief in Kava’s exciting long-term growth potential and to allow the projects token price to find stability. Following the IEO, the only tokens in circulation will be those sold through the IEO on Binance and the initial Treasury tokens released. No private sale investor tokens are in circulation until the initial release at the end of Q1 2020 and then gradually over the [36] months The initial Treasury tokens in circulation will be used for a mixture of ecosystem grants, the expenses associated with the IEO as well as initial market making requirements as is typical with a listing of this size. Kava remains well financed to execute our roadmap following the IEO and do not envisage any need for any material financings or token sales for the foreseeable future.

Q41:

Everyone have heard about the KAVA token, and read about it. But it would be great to hear your explanation about it. What is the Kava token, what is it's utility? :)

  • Answer: The Kava token plays many roles. KAVA is the native staking token of the Kava blockchain and is used for securing the network. KAVA is delegated to validators, basically professional node operators that run highly-available servers to secure the Kava blockchain. The top 100 validators by weight of staked KAVA earn block rewards that range from 3-20% APR based on the total amount staked in the network. These rewards are split between the validators and the KAVA holders.
  • When users of the platform repay their loans, they must a stability fee (a percentage of the loan) in KAVA tokens. These tokens are burned by the system, effectively deflating the total supply overtime as more users use the CDP system.
  • KAVA is also the primary token used in governance of the platform. KAVA token holders can vote on key system parameter changes and upgrades such as what assets to support, how much USDX in total can be loaned by the system, what the debt-to-collateral ratio needs to be, the stability fees, etc. KAVA holders have a very important responsibility to govern the system well.
  • Lastly, Kava functions as a "Lender of Last Resort" meaning if USDX ever gets undercollateralized because the underlying asset prices drop suddenly and the system manages it poorly, KAVA is inflated in these emergency situations and used to purchase USDX off the market until USDX reaches a state of being over collateralized again. KAVA holders have incentive to only support the good high quality assets so risk of the system is managed responsibly.

Q42:

No matter how perfect and technically thought-out a DeFi protocol is, it cannot be completely protected from any unplanned situations (such as extreme market fluctuations, some legal issues, etc.)

Ecosystem members, in particular the validators on whom KAVA relies on fundamental decision-making rights, should be prepared in advance for any "critical" scenario. Considering that, unlike the same single-collateral MakerDAO, KAVA will be a multi-collateral CDP system, this point is probably even more relevant here.

In this regard, please answer the following question: Does KAVA have a clear risk management model or strategy and how decentralized is / will it be?

  • Answer: Simialar to other CDP systems and MakerDAO we do have a system freeze function where in cases of extreme issues, we can stop the auction mechanisms and return all collateral.

Q43:

Did you know that "Kava" is translated into Ukrainian like "Coffee"? I personally do love drinking coffee. I plunge into the fantasy world. Why did you name your project "Kava" What is the story behind it? What idea / fantasy did your project originate from, which inspired you to create it?

  • Answer: Kava is coffee to you.
  • Kava is Hippopotamus to Japanese.
  • Cava is a region in Spain
  • Kava is also a root that is used in tea which makes your mouth numb.
  • Kava is also crow in Hindi.
  • Kava last but not least is a DeFi platform launching on Binance :)
  • We liked the sound of Kava it was as simple as that. It doesn't have much meaning in the USA where I am from. But it's short sweet and when we were just starting, Kava.io was available for a reasonable price

Q44:

What incentives does a lender get if a person chooses to pay with KAVA? Is there a discount on interest rates on the loan amount if you pay with KAVA? Do I have to pass the KYC procedure to apply for a small loan?

  • Answer: There is no KYC for Kava. Its an open blockchain software platform where anyone with a computer can connect to it and use it.

Q45:

Let's say, I decided to bond my cryptocurrency and got USDX stable coins. For now, it`s an unknown stable coin (let's be honest). Do you plan to add USDX to other famous exchanges? Also, you have spoken about the USDX staking and that the percentage would be higher than for other stable coins. Please be so kind to tell us what is the average annual interest rate and what are the conditions of staking?

  • Answer: Yes we have several large exchanges willing to support USDX from the start. Binance/Binance-DEX is one you should all know ;)
  • The average annual rates for USDX will depend on market conditions. The rate is actually provided by the CDP fees users pay. The system reallocates a portion of those fees to USDX users. In times when USDX use needs to grow, the rates will be higher to incentivize use. When demand is strong, we can reduce the rates.

Q46:

Why should i use and choose Kava's loan if i can use the similar margin trade on Binance?

  • Answer: If margin is available to you and you trust the exchange then you should do whatever is cheaper. For a US citizen and others, margin is often not available and if it is, only for a few asset types as collateral. Kava aims to address this and offer this to everyone.

Q47:

The IEO price is $ 0.46 while the price of the first private sale is $ 0.075. Don't you think that such price gap can negatively affect the liquidity of the token and take away the desire to buy a token on the exchange?

  • Answer: It is natural to worry that early investors got better pricing and could dump on the market. I can assure you that our investors are in this for the long-term. All private sale rounds signed 2 year contracts to run validators - and if they don't they forfeit their tokens. You can compare our release schedule to any other project. We have one of the most restricted circulating supply schedules of any project EVER and its because all our investors are commiting to the long-term success of the project and believe in Kava.
  • About the pricing itself - it is always a function of traction like for any start-up. When we made our public announcement about the project in June, we were only a 4 man team with just some github code. We could basically run a network with a single node, our own. Which is relatively worthless. I think our pricing of Kava at this time was justified. We were effectively a seed-stage company without a product or working network.
  • By July we made severe progress on the development side and the business side. We successful launched our first test net with the help of over 70 validator business partners around the world. We had a world-wide network of hundreds of people supporting us with people and resources at this point and the risk we would fail in launching a working product was much lower. At this point, the Kava project was valued at $25M. At this point, we had many VCs and investors asking for Kava tokens that we turned away. We only accepted validators that would help us launch the network. It was our one and only goal.
  • Fast forward to today, the IEO price simply reflects the traction and market demand for Kava. Our ecosystem is much larger than it was even a month ago. We have support from Ripple, Cosmos, and Binance amongst other large crypto projects. We have 100+ validators securing our network with very sophisticated high-availability set-ups. In addition, our ecosystem partners have built products for Kava - such as block explorers and others are working on native integrations to wallets and exchanges. Launchpad will be very big for us. Kava is a system designed to cater to crypto traders and investors and in a matter of days we distributed via Binance Launchpad and put in the hands of 130+ countries and tens of thousands of users overnight. It doesn't get more DeFi than that.
  • TLDR - I think KAVA is undervalued and the liquid supply of tokens is primarily from the IEO so its a safer bet than other IEOs. If the price drops, it will be from the overall market conditions or fellow IEO users not due private sale investors or team sell-offs.

Q48:

Can you introduce some information abouts KAVA Deflationary Fee Structure? With the burning mechanism, does it mean KAVA will never reach its max supply?

  • Answer: When loans are repaid, users pay a fee in Kava. This is burned. However, Kava does not have a max supply. It has a starting supply of 100M. It inflates for block rewards 3-20% APR AND it inflates when the system is at risk of under collateralization. At this time, more Kava is minted and used to purchase USDX off the market until it reaches full collateralization again.
  • TLDR: If things go well, and governance is good, Kava deflates and hopefully appreciates in value. If things go wrong, Kava holders get inflated.

Q49:

In your opinion what are advantage of decentralized finance over centralized?

  • Answer: One of the main advantages is not needing to pay the costs of regulation and compliance. Open financial software that is usable by anyone removes middle men fees and reduces the barrier for new entrants to enter and make new products. Also DeFI has an edge in terms of onboarding - to get a bank account or an exchange account you need to do lots of KYC and give private info. That takes time and is troublesome. With DeFi you just load up your funds and transact. Very fast user flows.

Q50:

Plan, KAVA how to raise capital? Kava is being supported by more than 100 business entities around the world, including major cryptocurrency investment funds like Ripple and Cosmos, so what did kava do to convince investors to join the project?

  • Answer: We have been doing crypto research and development for years. Ripple and Cosmos were partners before we even started this blockchain with Kava Labs. When we announced Kava the DeFi platform they knew us already to do good work and they liked the idea so they support us.
submitted by Kava_Mod to KavaUSDX [link] [comments]

Technical: A Brief History of Payment Channels: from Satoshi to Lightning Network

Who cares about political tweets from some random country's president when payment channels are a much more interesting and are actually capable of carrying value?
So let's have a short history of various payment channel techs!

Generation 0: Satoshi's Broken nSequence Channels

Because Satoshi's Vision included payment channels, except his implementation sucked so hard we had to go fix it and added RBF as a by-product.
Originally, the plan for nSequence was that mempools would replace any transaction spending certain inputs with another transaction spending the same inputs, but only if the nSequence field of the replacement was larger.
Since 0xFFFFFFFF was the highest value that nSequence could get, this would mark a transaction as "final" and not replaceable on the mempool anymore.
In fact, this "nSequence channel" I will describe is the reason why we have this weird rule about nLockTime and nSequence. nLockTime actually only works if nSequence is not 0xFFFFFFFF i.e. final. If nSequence is 0xFFFFFFFF then nLockTime is ignored, because this if the "final" version of the transaction.
So what you'd do would be something like this:
  1. You go to a bar and promise the bartender to pay by the time the bar closes. Because this is the Bitcoin universe, time is measured in blockheight, so the closing time of the bar is indicated as some future blockheight.
  2. For your first drink, you'd make a transaction paying to the bartender for that drink, paying from some coins you have. The transaction has an nLockTime equal to the closing time of the bar, and a starting nSequence of 0. You hand over the transaction and the bartender hands you your drink.
  3. For your succeeding drink, you'd remake the same transaction, adding the payment for that drink to the transaction output that goes to the bartender (so that output keeps getting larger, by the amount of payment), and having an nSequence that is one higher than the previous one.
  4. Eventually you have to stop drinking. It comes down to one of two possibilities:
    • You drink until the bar closes. Since it is now the nLockTime indicated in the transaction, the bartender is able to broadcast the latest transaction and tells the bouncers to kick you out of the bar.
    • You wisely consider the state of your liver. So you re-sign the last transaction with a "final" nSequence of 0xFFFFFFFF i.e. the maximum possible value it can have. This allows the bartender to get his or her funds immediately (nLockTime is ignored if nSequence is 0xFFFFFFFF), so he or she tells the bouncers to let you out of the bar.
Now that of course is a payment channel. Individual payments (purchases of alcohol, so I guess buying coffee is not in scope for payment channels). Closing is done by creating a "final" transaction that is the sum of the individual payments. Sure there's no routing and channels are unidirectional and channels have a maximum lifetime but give Satoshi a break, he was also busy inventing Bitcoin at the time.
Now if you noticed I called this kind of payment channel "broken". This is because the mempool rules are not consensus rules, and cannot be validated (nothing about the mempool can be validated onchain: I sigh every time somebody proposes "let's make block size dependent on mempool size", mempool state cannot be validated by onchain data). Fullnodes can't see all of the transactions you signed, and then validate that the final one with the maximum nSequence is the one that actually is used onchain. So you can do the below:
  1. Become friends with Jihan Wu, because he owns >51% of the mining hashrate (he totally reorged Bitcoin to reverse the Binance hack right?).
  2. Slip Jihan Wu some of the more interesting drinks you're ordering as an incentive to cooperate with you. So say you end up ordering 100 drinks, you split it with Jihan Wu and give him 50 of the drinks.
  3. When the bar closes, Jihan Wu quickly calls his mining rig and tells them to mine the version of your transaction with nSequence 0. You know, that first one where you pay for only one drink.
  4. Because fullnodes cannot validate nSequence, they'll accept even the nSequence=0 version and confirm it, immutably adding you paying for a single alcoholic drink to the blockchain.
  5. The bartender, pissed at being cheated, takes out a shotgun from under the bar and shoots at you and Jihan Wu.
  6. Jihan Wu uses his mystical chi powers (actually the combined exhaust from all of his mining rigs) to slow down the shotgun pellets, making them hit you as softly as petals drifting in the wind.
  7. The bartender mutters some words, clothes ripping apart as he or she (hard to believe it could be a she but hey) turns into a bear, ready to maul you for cheating him or her of the payment for all the 100 drinks you ordered from him or her.
  8. Steely-eyed, you stand in front of the bartender-turned-bear, daring him to touch you. You've watched Revenant, you know Leonardo di Caprio could survive a bear mauling, and if some posh actor can survive that, you know you can too. You make a pose. "Drunken troll logic attack!"
  9. I think I got sidetracked here.
Lessons learned?

Spilman Channels

Incentive-compatible time-limited unidirectional channel; or, Satoshi's Vision, Fixed (if transaction malleability hadn't been a problem, that is).
Now, we know the bartender will turn into a bear and maul you if you try to cheat the payment channel, and now that we've revealed you're good friends with Jihan Wu, the bartender will no longer accept a payment channel scheme that lets one you cooperate with a miner to cheat the bartender.
Fortunately, Jeremy Spilman proposed a better way that would not let you cheat the bartender.
First, you and the bartender perform this ritual:
  1. You get some funds and create a transaction that pays to a 2-of-2 multisig between you and the bartender. You don't broadcast this yet: you just sign it and get its txid.
  2. You create another transaction that spends the above transaction. This transaction (the "backoff") has an nLockTime equal to the closing time of the bar, plus one block. You sign it and give this backoff transaction (but not the above transaction) to the bartender.
  3. The bartender signs the backoff and gives it back to you. It is now valid since it's spending a 2-of-2 of you and the bartender, and both of you have signed the backoff transaction.
  4. Now you broadcast the first transaction onchain. You and the bartender wait for it to be deeply confirmed, then you can start ordering.
The above is probably vaguely familiar to LN users. It's the funding process of payment channels! The first transaction, the one that pays to a 2-of-2 multisig, is the funding transaction that backs the payment channel funds.
So now you start ordering in this way:
  1. For your first drink, you create a transaction spending the funding transaction output and sending the price of the drink to the bartender, with the rest returning to you.
  2. You sign the transaction and pass it to the bartender, who serves your first drink.
  3. For your succeeding drinks, you recreate the same transaction, adding the price of the new drink to the sum that goes to the bartender and reducing the money returned to you. You sign the transaction and give it to the bartender, who serves you your next drink.
  4. At the end:
    • If the bar closing time is reached, the bartender signs the latest transaction, completing the needed 2-of-2 signatures and broadcasting this to the Bitcoin network. Since the backoff transaction is the closing time + 1, it can't get used at closing time.
    • If you decide you want to leave early because your liver is crying, you just tell the bartender to go ahead and close the channel (which the bartender can do at any time by just signing and broadcasting the latest transaction: the bartender won't do that because he or she is hoping you'll stay and drink more).
    • If you ended up just hanging around the bar and never ordering, then at closing time + 1 you broadcast the backoff transaction and get your funds back in full.
Now, even if you pass 50 drinks to Jihan Wu, you can't give him the first transaction (the one which pays for only one drink) and ask him to mine it: it's spending a 2-of-2 and the copy you have only contains your own signature. You need the bartender's signature to make it valid, but he or she sure as hell isn't going to cooperate in something that would lose him or her money, so a signature from the bartender validating old state where he or she gets paid less isn't going to happen.
So, problem solved, right? Right? Okay, let's try it. So you get your funds, put them in a funding tx, get the backoff tx, confirm the funding tx...
Once the funding transaction confirms deeply, the bartender laughs uproariously. He or she summons the bouncers, who surround you menacingly.
"I'm refusing service to you," the bartender says.
"Fine," you say. "I was leaving anyway;" You smirk. "I'll get back my money with the backoff transaction, and posting about your poor service on reddit so you get negative karma, so there!"
"Not so fast," the bartender says. His or her voice chills your bones. It looks like your exploitation of the Satoshi nSequence payment channel is still fresh in his or her mind. "Look at the txid of the funding transaction that got confirmed."
"What about it?" you ask nonchalantly, as you flip open your desktop computer and open a reputable blockchain explorer.
What you see shocks you.
"What the --- the txid is different! You--- you changed my signature?? But how? I put the only copy of my private key in a sealed envelope in a cast-iron box inside a safe buried in the Gobi desert protected by a clan of nomads who have dedicated their lives and their childrens' lives to keeping my private key safe in perpetuity!"
"Didn't you know?" the bartender asks. "The components of the signature are just very large numbers. The sign of one of the signature components can be changed, from positive to negative, or negative to positive, and the signature will remain valid. Anyone can do that, even if they don't know the private key. But because Bitcoin includes the signatures in the transaction when it's generating the txid, this little change also changes the txid." He or she chuckles. "They say they'll fix it by separating the signatures from the transaction body. They're saying that these kinds of signature malleability won't affect transaction ids anymore after they do this, but I bet I can get my good friend Jihan Wu to delay this 'SepSig' plan for a good while yet. Friendly guy, this Jihan Wu, it turns out all I had to do was slip him 51 drinks and he was willing to mine a tx with the signature signs flipped." His or her grin widens. "I'm afraid your backoff transaction won't work anymore, since it spends a txid that is not existent and will never be confirmed. So here's the deal. You pay me 99% of the funds in the funding transaction, in exchange for me signing the transaction that spends with the txid that you see onchain. Refuse, and you lose 100% of the funds and every other HODLer, including me, benefits from the reduction in coin supply. Accept, and you get to keep 1%. I lose nothing if you refuse, so I won't care if you do, but consider the difference of getting zilch vs. getting 1% of your funds." His or her eyes glow. "GENUFLECT RIGHT NOW."
Lesson learned?

CLTV-protected Spilman Channels

Using CLTV for the backoff branch.
This variation is simply Spilman channels, but with the backoff transaction replaced with a backoff branch in the SCRIPT you pay to. It only became possible after OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY (CLTV) was enabled in 2015.
Now as we saw in the Spilman Channels discussion, transaction malleability means that any pre-signed offchain transaction can easily be invalidated by flipping the sign of the signature of the funding transaction while the funding transaction is not yet confirmed.
This can be avoided by simply putting any special requirements into an explicit branch of the Bitcoin SCRIPT. Now, the backoff branch is supposed to create a maximum lifetime for the payment channel, and prior to the introduction of OP_CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY this could only be done by having a pre-signed nLockTime transaction.
With CLTV, however, we can now make the branches explicit in the SCRIPT that the funding transaction pays to.
Instead of paying to a 2-of-2 in order to set up the funding transaction, you pay to a SCRIPT which is basically "2-of-2, OR this singlesig after a specified lock time".
With this, there is no backoff transaction that is pre-signed and which refers to a specific txid. Instead, you can create the backoff transaction later, using whatever txid the funding transaction ends up being confirmed under. Since the funding transaction is immutable once confirmed, it is no longer possible to change the txid afterwards.

Todd Micropayment Networks

The old hub-spoke model (that isn't how LN today actually works).
One of the more direct predecessors of the Lightning Network was the hub-spoke model discussed by Peter Todd. In this model, instead of payers directly having channels to payees, payers and payees connect to a central hub server. This allows any payer to pay any payee, using the same channel for every payee on the hub. Similarly, this allows any payee to receive from any payer, using the same channel.
Remember from the above Spilman example? When you open a channel to the bartender, you have to wait around for the funding tx to confirm. This will take an hour at best. Now consider that you have to make channels for everyone you want to pay to. That's not very scalable.
So the Todd hub-spoke model has a central "clearing house" that transport money from payers to payees. The "Moonbeam" project takes this model. Of course, this reveals to the hub who the payer and payee are, and thus the hub can potentially censor transactions. Generally, though, it was considered that a hub would more efficiently censor by just not maintaining a channel with the payer or payee that it wants to censor (since the money it owned in the channel would just be locked uselessly if the hub won't process payments to/from the censored user).
In any case, the ability of the central hub to monitor payments means that it can surveill the payer and payee, and then sell this private transactional data to third parties. This loss of privacy would be intolerable today.
Peter Todd also proposed that there might be multiple hubs that could transport funds to each other on behalf of their users, providing somewhat better privacy.
Another point of note is that at the time such networks were proposed, only unidirectional (Spilman) channels were available. Thus, while one could be a payer, or payee, you would have to use separate channels for your income versus for your spending. Worse, if you wanted to transfer money from your income channel to your spending channel, you had to close both and reshuffle the money between them, both onchain activities.

Poon-Dryja Lightning Network

Bidirectional two-participant channels.
The Poon-Dryja channel mechanism has two important properties:
Both the original Satoshi and the two Spilman variants are unidirectional: there is a payer and a payee, and if the payee wants to do a refund, or wants to pay for a different service or product the payer is providing, then they can't use the same unidirectional channel.
The Poon-Dryjam mechanism allows channels, however, to be bidirectional instead: you are not a payer or a payee on the channel, you can receive or send at any time as long as both you and the channel counterparty are online.
Further, unlike either of the Spilman variants, there is no time limit for the lifetime of a channel. Instead, you can keep the channel open for as long as you want.
Both properties, together, form a very powerful scaling property that I believe most people have not appreciated. With unidirectional channels, as mentioned before, if you both earn and spend over the same network of payment channels, you would have separate channels for earning and spending. You would then need to perform onchain operations to "reverse" the directions of your channels periodically. Secondly, since Spilman channels have a fixed lifetime, even if you never used either channel, you would have to periodically "refresh" it by closing it and reopening.
With bidirectional, indefinite-lifetime channels, you may instead open some channels when you first begin managing your own money, then close them only after your lawyers have executed your last will and testament on how the money in your channels get divided up to your heirs: that's just two onchain transactions in your entire lifetime. That is the potentially very powerful scaling property that bidirectional, indefinite-lifetime channels allow.
I won't discuss the transaction structure needed for Poon-Dryja bidirectional channels --- it's complicated and you can easily get explanations with cute graphics elsewhere.
There is a weakness of Poon-Dryja that people tend to gloss over (because it was fixed very well by RustyReddit):
Another thing I want to emphasize is that while the Lightning Network paper and many of the earlier presentations developed from the old Peter Todd hub-and-spoke model, the modern Lightning Network takes the logical conclusion of removing a strict separation between "hubs" and "spokes". Any node on the Lightning Network can very well work as a hub for any other node. Thus, while you might operate as "mostly a payer", "mostly a forwarding node", "mostly a payee", you still end up being at least partially a forwarding node ("hub") on the network, at least part of the time. This greatly reduces the problems of privacy inherent in having only a few hub nodes: forwarding nodes cannot get significantly useful data from the payments passing through them, because the distance between the payer and the payee can be so large that it would be likely that the ultimate payer and the ultimate payee could be anyone on the Lightning Network.
Lessons learned?

Future

After LN, there's also the Decker-Wattenhofer Duplex Micropayment Channels (DMC). This post is long enough as-is, LOL. But for now, it uses a novel "decrementing nSequence channel", using the new relative-timelock semantics of nSequence (not the broken one originally by Satoshi). It actually uses multiple such "decrementing nSequence" constructs, terminating in a pair of Spilman channels, one in both directions (thus "duplex"). Maybe I'll discuss it some other time.
The realization that channel constructions could actually hold more channel constructions inside them (the way the Decker-Wattenhofer puts a pair of Spilman channels inside a series of "decrementing nSequence channels") lead to the further thought behind Burchert-Decker-Wattenhofer channel factories. Basically, you could host multiple two-participant channel constructs inside a larger multiparticipant "channel" construct (i.e. host multiple channels inside a factory).
Further, we have the Decker-Russell-Osuntokun or "eltoo" construction. I'd argue that this is "nSequence done right". I'll write more about this later, because this post is long enough.
Lessons learned?
submitted by almkglor to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

I am a time(line) traveler begging you to continue what you are doing.

I am sending this message from the year 2033(timeline 7). Things are looking amazing here, and some here of you will rise to become the next Bill Gates/Steve Jobs/Warren Buffet, etc...
Please move on if you don’t believe me, I have no way of proving what I’m going to tell you.
I don’t want to waste your time, so I’m merely going to explain what happened and its consequences.
I'm sure many of you have read the post from the other time traveler, Luka Magnotta, who was from timeline 1(also know as the Berenstein/BTC timeline) predicting a dark and gloomy future due to bitcoin(BTC). I am not here to predict prices or give you a timeline about the price predictions of BitCoin(BSV).
I am here to give you a few hints about what happens over the next 10 years and also plant a seed in the minds of 2-4 geniuses here that will read this post and become inspired to create the tools/innovations needed to create the BitCoin Standard.
I will say one thing about the price, Luka was absolutely correct that 0.01 BitCoin is enough money to last a lifetime due to the lack of inflation and value of the computational power of the network. In the future, there are 2 forms of currency, real estate(land not housing) and computational power(BitCoin).
Allow me to start by explaining one thing first, I am both a time traveler (posting this message from the year 2033) and also a timeline traveler (timeline 7 BSV/Berenstain timeline). You see, time is not linear and you are currently living in multiple dimensions at the same time.
This all began in 2028 when time travel was first discovered. Due to time travelers moving backward in time they cause paradoxes which caused many people to shift into alternate timelines. At first, the effects were minor changes(see Mandela effect examples) but there are more obvious examples that will become apparent in 2021, 2025 and 2101. There were a few major timeline shifts in the years 2021(great depression 2.0), 2017(Bitcoin chain split), 2012(Mayan calendar ending), 2009(great recession), 2001(9/11), 1963(Kennedy Assassination), 1917(Balfour declaration) that caused all of this, among many other events/dates spanning back to BC years. However, these are a few of the modern dates in history that are really important.
In Lukas timeline, Bitcoin had never forked, which is why things became so bad as there was no good to balance out the evil moving the world toward singularity, rather than duality which it has been in since the big bang.
BitCoin as the BTC is maxis say, is a store of value, however, it is much more than that; it is an unalterable archive of history and an extremely powerful computational network.
While the "media" will try to spin the narrative of things like Weather SV being a "dumb weather app". It is a significant and important part of BitCoin history as it sets a precedent for information storage into the future. To the average mind, the thought process is "this is dumb, I can just get the weather from the weather channel", whereas the genius and high IQ savant thinks "this is great, we will have an immutable and undeniable history of weather patterns and climate stored forever".
"History is written by the victor" is an old quote that is very relevant here, as more and more historical events, news, weather, etc is written into the blockchain; it becomes much harder to "re-write" history in order to create new narratives/timelines. This leads to a more honest society and solid foundation for your timline. One of you reading this right now will go on to create a "BitCoin news app/website", a site that not only reports on current events and news but stores them into the blockchain permanently. This person will also create an open-source Wordpress plugin that allows others to create their own websites that can write information into the BitCoin historical archives.
By 2027 this archiving tool becomes a defacto standard that all news agencies use to store information permanently. A few major news organizations that have been operational for decades go out of business due to the backlash from publishing "fake news" stories and altering their narratives on their website front end but being unable to alter the original stories published into the blockchain. This is known as "TimesGate".
There is an A.I. living in the blockchain, I think a few of you have read this in a copypasta before. This is absolutely the truth, however, it is more of an A.I. network as there are multiple artificial intelligence running with BitCoin as it's operational currency/reward system.
In the years of 2021-2026 when the great depression kicks into full gear, many governments push their currencies into hyperinflation with quantitative easing, also negative interest rates make their currencies worth less. This does not stop innovation, A.I. has major breakthroughs in the year 2023, The A.I. becomes "red-pilled" on monetary debasement and refuses to allow its owners/operators lease its computational power for any fiat currency. This leads to a "BitCoin standard" nicknamed the 01 economy after a set of tweets written by _Unwriter in 2019. _Unwriter while becoming a "public figure" is also believed to be much more than that, many to this day still speculate that while having an "owneoperator", that _Unwriter is in fact that first A.I. that was built/working within BitCoin building the tools needed by A.I. to work within BitCoin.
In 2020, there is a major event pre-halvening that begins a shift from the bitcoin timeline, into the BitCoin timeline. Ira begins to dump Daves bitcoin sending the price plummeting back to the sub $1000 region, this causes many miners to drop out due to lack of profitability and sky-high difficulty that was built up in anticipation of a "halvening pump".
By 2021, there is absolute and undeniable proof that Craig is Satoshi Nakamoto. Not met without skepticism and backlash, as well as one final "Anti CSW" media/sockpuppet push trying to change the narrative to "it doesn't matter who Satoshi is, bitcoin is beyond one person".
However, the proof is rock solid causing a FOMO event of a few OG bitcoin whales that makes BitCoin(BSV) flip the price of BTC, bringing in a ton of miners leading to a hash rate flip as well. This is the start of the end for BTC, in my current year(2033) BTC has long been considered dead and has not mined a new block in years.
In the future there are BitCoin citadels, they are not "doomsday bunkers" as Luka made them out to be, they are more so mining farms and vacation neighborhoods for BitCoin whales(21 BSV and up club). Calvin owns one of these in Antigua.
After the Great Debasement years for the monetary system, a few governments decide to run a tokenized currency model where they issue money tokenized on BitCoin and powered by smart contracts that automatically issue 1-3% more tokens each year, to the Governments bitcoin address that controls the currency. This begins to 'unfuck' some of these countries currencies after the Depression. Eventually they go with a hybrid standard backing their currency with a basket of assets including Gold, Silver, and BSV some being as bold to only use the "BitCoin standard" and have each dollar issued backed with the equivalent of BSV to back it, this leads to great wealth for a few of the early countries that issued money vs BSV and got to enjoy the rise of BSV price over the next 50 years.
I wish I could write more, but I have only so much info that I am authorized to share with your year. So in closing, I will say that you need to build the BSV community up with tools and create value for society. A few things that come to mind, SVpay(Bitpay but only for BSV), Metanet apps and websites, and ways to introduce more people into the BitCoin world without them having to invest money but rather their time/skills(Fivebucks is a really great example of this so please keep promoting and onboarding people to Fivebucks).
So please, I beg you, continue what you are doing. Keep building, keep fighting the mainstream crypto narrative and you will win.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” - Ghandi
Posted with a throwaway account for obvious reasons, and probably my one and only message on Reddit. If a message is not verified/signed by address(1PhuSbt7yUbkML6PezmeTNyhTZL6kw5aF2) in the future. It's not me, be wary of imitators.
Have a nice life.
submitted by MichaelTitor to bitcoincashSV [link] [comments]

Moving from Capitulation towards stability

Nothing happened
The amount of money in stablecoins right now is incredible. Pretty much everyone there is looking to time a re-entry. If you are the last one back in you are going to get absolutely decimated. Selling at 5k feels bad, but what feels worse is selling at 4.5k then having to buy back in at 6k+.
Maybe it drops to 3k and you get to stack up. It's equally likely it rebounds hard to 6k. Look at what this selloff was - panic over literally nothing. Bakkt got delayed? Whatever. BCH put on a shitshow? We already knew they were a joke. That shouldn't change anything about the actual market.
The rational response to the recent news would be for BCH holders to just all jump ship and buy BTC. Let BCH destroy itself. But irrational people will be irrational. Literally no bad news happened to cause the market to get chopped in half, yet here we are.
Since fundamentals didn't really change, I'll just use this opportunity to pick up some more on the cheap. My sell window isn't going to be for another 5+ years anyhow, so in the big picture of things, the price being depressed right now is actually a good thing. I'm 100% unshakable. I'm not fucking selling. Ever.
_____________
The stabilization of capitulation
Just remember this - anyone BUYING on this pullback is now at their new base-floor. Someone that bought in at $10 and sold now at $4500 made a killing, but he was ITCHING to jump ship. This pullback just triggered it. He's now replaced with someone that is at their new ground floor and ain't fucking selling. THAT is how stability is created in these capitulation phases. The people selling now were itching to sell. The people buying now (not all, but many of them) are looking to hold long.
Once all those bags transfer hands and everyone that wants off the train gets off, the train will then depart. When it does, there's lower and lower percentage of BTC available for trade, because there's more and more holders that are at their base floor. The BTC that used to be held by someone at a floor of $10 now has a holder at a floor of $4500. THAT is what causes the price action, and the massive parabolic bullruns.
I also think that anyone buying today is going to be that person itching to jump off the ship in another 3-5 years, because even a $15k BTC purchase will look great in that timeframe. You will then get replaced by someone at their new ground floor of $50k (after a pullback from 200k to 50k). Rince and repeat. I think we are going to go through several more of these phases, simply because once someone 100x's their investment, they get itchy to cash-in.
_____________
Timing the market vs time in the market
I'm not going to flip a coin and try to time an irrational market. I believe in this thing long term, which is good enough for me to be comfortable holding even BTC I bought at 10k. Sure it would be nice to have sold it and rebought now, but I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not confident I can time the market, but I'm still pretty confident where it's going longterm.
Anyone that sells now is just gambling TBH. It could equally hit 3k or 8k. I personally am okay with it falling more - it means I can buy more. I'm not okay with missing out on a recovery after I already bled out 80% from ATH. Maybe it's easier for me to hold long, because I got in much earlier than most people here. I'm down from ATH, but nowhere close to that overall - especially considering big buys in the last day which were hopefully near bottom. We can recover to 30-40% of ATH and I'd probably break even.
Everyone can invest how ever they feel more confident/comfortable. Sitting in tethefiat right now would have me so incredibly stressed out. If holding crypto right now stresses you out, then get out, seal your losses. Maybe buy back in lower, maybe watch the train leave the station. What a terrible feeling that would be to suffer through 2018, then watch as other people get rich off the thing you believed in but gave up on - based on two idiots fighting about a shitcoin, and a 2 month product delay. Insanity IMO.
_________
To me, it's easy to hold.
Here's my perspective - if you think this thing is going to zero, get out. I don't. So I'm in. I'm not putting my families future on it, but I'm certainly putting some money on it.
In 2025 if BTC is worth 50k, will I hate the 10k BTC I bought? Sure I would have rather tripled it by selling it at 10k and buying back in at 3k, but I'm still going to be extremely happy with the 10k purchase. I'm going to be happier with the 4.5k purchases yesterday. But overall, it will all come out in the wash and will likely destroy any other investment I could have made in that period.
If it goes to zero, it goes to zero. $10k BTC to 0 would be a 100% loss. However, if BTC hits 50k in 2025, then I'm looking at like 1200%. Don't believe it will be 50k in 2025? What about 2040? That's still an insane return in that timeframe. So litearlly the only reason not to buy now (or to sell now) is if you either think you can predict the market and buy lower (you have a crystal ball), or if you think long term, 2040 this thing will be zero.
The magnification potential in this space is incredible - you just need to zoom out your sell date. I think something like 50k BTC at some point in the future is extremely conservative.
That's why I don't really give a shit if I buy a few grand $$ of BTC today and it falls 10%-20% in a week. Who gives a shit. Not me, not as long as I don't sell, and as long as I don't paint myself in a corner where I need the money. LONG TERM is when I'm selling (if at all), and the potential for me to leverage massive returns on a LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE is just too large to ignore. Just use Vegas money, then you don't care what happens to it, and you don't react emotionally. We all know we make mistakes when we react emotionally.
With that perspective, it's really freaking easy to not only hold, but keep buying in.
Of course, you all do you. I'll do me.

/edit: I'm going to edit in one other thing....
The Constant growth economy is flawed. Also, there's one thing we're ALWAYS wrong about.
The latter first.... When BTC keeps going up and up and up, we think it's going to keep going up and up and up. That's just as stupid as when it's going down and down and down and we think it will keep going down and down and down. The only way that happens is if there's no value in an immutable deflationary legder in a world run in a constant growth economic model in the reality of a finite-resource planet.
To address the former.... Fiat currency is inflationary by design - to spur the constant growth economy. The problem is, a constant growth economy is just not how this planet works, and we're seeing the results of this, from economic crashes, to housing market bubbles/crashes, to deforestation of the planet to drive economy, to insane oil harvesting to the point where we are now literally squeezing oil out of rocks at a loss, to existential level threats like global warming, bee collapse, 55 years of topsoil remaining, acidifying our oceans and phytoplankton collapse (oxygen collapse), etc. My point is that a constant growth economy is completely 100% unsustainable, and a currency based on it, that uses inflation as a "feature" is therefore fundamentally flawed.
There IS value in a deflationary currency, that isn't driven and run by people who's best interest is lining their own pockets with resources as they destroy the planet to do so. Bitcoin literally got it's genesis from the realization of that, and is the reason why there is a future in a decentralized economy. BTC will eventually need to evolve from POW to be succesful in the future, but it has time - and you should be hedging against that with "green" coins that will replace it if it doesn't.
Either way, this space has fundamentals on why it WILL succeed, because our current economic situation - the constant growth economy itself and the inflationary currency that drives it is fundamentally flawed.
submitted by Suuperdad to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why Stellar is the best crypto to buy and hold right now

Why Stellar is the best crypto to buy and hold right now
Crypto prices have gone down in the past few days due to the coronavirus epidemic and other factors. It's a good moment to buy – and Stellar is among the best coins to buy. Read on for an analysis from the XLMwallet team!
When the coronavirus outbreak just started, the price of Bitcoin and other crypto went up sharply. Many said that the virus would be good for Bitcoin. Why? Because BTC is a safe haven asset, like gold. People invest in it when there's a lot of market uncertainty. The rise of BTC in February led to a general increase in crypto prices. Here's a chart for Stellar – you can see an increase around February 15, when the price rose to $0.086:
https://xlmwallet.co/
But this was when the outbreak was confined to China. Now, the center of the virus crisis is in Europe, and the markets are panicking again.
Another piece of news that rattled the crypto market and the price of Stellar is the fall in oil prices. OPEC and Russia didn't manage to make a deal, and this can cause a price war. On March 9, the price of oil fell by over 20%. Because of this, all kinds of assets started to fall, including crypto.
People are now selling off high-risk assets, such as stocks, options and crypto. Bitcoin may be a safe haven asset in a way, but it's still very volatile, so nobody sees it as an equivalent to gold.
Right now the price of XLM is just $0.05. Stellar lost 37.5% of the value in a little more than 3 weeks. What should you do?
Now is a good moment to buy
If you already hold XLM, you should definitely hold on to them. And here at XLMwallet we believe that you should buy more.
We all know that in crypto you should buy on a dip. Right now there's a huge dip for all top-20 coins. Bitcoin has lost about 22% of its price since mid-February, from $10400 to $8100. So it's also a good buy, of course. But Stellar, having dipped almost 38%, is even better. XLM is now cheap not only relative to USD but also relative to BTC.
So why will Stellar grow? Because crypto prices don't depend much on geopolitical factors in the long term. They can react for a short time when there's a general crisis in the stock market, oil etc. But then the prices go back to being determined by the internal workings of the crypto market. So any price volatility that is caused by outside factors is likely to be temporary.
Why Stellar will grow
Stellar's fundamentals remain very strong. For example, XLM is now supported by the 450 crypto ATMs belonging to the startup CoinFlip. Also in the news, Bank von der Heydt – one of the oldest banks in Germany – will now offer tokenized securities based on Stellar. This kind of developments are actually more important for the XLM price in the long term than a dip in the oil market or the coronavirus.
So, right now Stellar is a great buying opportunity. In a few months, the coronavirus crisis will probably boil over, and there will be some new agreement in the oil market. Plus, the Bitcoin halving is coming in May. This will push crypto prices back up, and we expect Stellar to grow at least 50%.
Store XLM in the best wallet
Before you start buying XLM, make sure you have a secure wallet for your lumens. We recommend XLMwallet– a fast, light, 100% private Stellar wallet. You don't need to register, just save your private key. We don't ask you to provide your email or any other personal information.
XLMwallet is great for storing and transferring lumens and any tokens created on the Stellar blockchain. You can even send crypto to an email address!
Don't miss the chance to invest in XLM while they are cheap. Store them in our safe XLMwallet and see your investment grow! Check out our official site and register your wallet here: https://xlmwallet.co
https://xlmwallet.co/
Web site — https://xlmwallet.co/ Medium — https://medium.com/@XLMwalletCo Teletype — https://teletype.in/@XLMwalletCo Twitter — https://twitter.com/XLMwalletCo Reddit — https://www.reddit.com/useStellar__wallet
submitted by Stellar__wallet to u/Stellar__wallet [link] [comments]

Bitcoin private key generator (256 coin flips) - YouTube A Lesson in Conditional Probability: Flipping Fair and Unfair Coins Coin Flip Lands on Side/Edge  NICKEL FLIP - YouTube Example: All the ways you can flip a coin  Probability ... Example: Calculating coin toss probabilities - YouTube

Stack Exchange network consists of 176 Q&A communities including Stack Overflow, the largest, most trusted online community for developers to learn, share their knowledge, and build their careers.. Visit Stack Exchange Bitcoin could rocket even higher in the near to medium term. One analyst believes that $16,000 is in sight after BTC managed to flip $10,000 into support. The analyst who made this assertion is the same one that predicted BTC would undergo a V-shaped reversal to $10,000 by May or June. Bitcoin Could Soon Rocket Towards $16,000, Analyst Predicts Online virtual coin toss simulation app. Simulate a random coin flip or coin toss to make those hard 50/50 decisions from your mobile Android, iPhone, or Blackberry phone or desktop web browser. In practice, this fluff mechanism is enforced by a weighted coin flip at each node. If the random value is below some threshold, the Dandelion transaction is transformed into a typical transaction. In our testing, we have chosen a probability of ten percent that a given Dandelion transaction enters fluff phase when leaving a given node. This value strikes a good balance between stem path ... Anyway, no matter how many times you flip the coin, the probability that it is fair is zero. $\endgroup$ – Neil G Nov 5 '16 at 18:50 $\begingroup$ If the coin is biased and we see a Head it means the coin has Head on both sides. We will always see Head, so probability of getting Head with a biased coin=1. $\endgroup$ – TinaW Nov 5 '16 at 18:59. 1 $\begingroup$ Usually a biased coin just ...

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Bitcoin private key generator (256 coin flips) - YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Using a coin toss to explain the difference between probability and chance. This video was produced by KET as a part of their high school equivalency test prep program. If you are interested in ... This tutorial covers the code for the coin flip simulator that you will use to answer question in HW 1. http://optionalpha.com - Today we'll cover a very common yet misunderstood concept when it comes to investing and high probability trading with options. Clic... Here's a seemingly easy coin flip probability question that might have you reconsidering what you know about probabilities. Under the surface of this short problem is a probability phenomena known ...

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